Peace Plans Ready for Presented to Russia Within Days, States Ukraine's President

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.